About Predict Panda
A prediction market analytics platform that aggregates live markets from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold, scores edge opportunities using an AI-assisted quant model, and lets you simulate performance without risking a cent.
Not Financial Advice
Predict Panda is an analytics and simulation tool only. Nothing on this platform constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve real risk of loss. Always do your own research and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
How to Use Predict Panda
Browse Markets
Go to Markets to see live markets from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold, updated every 3 minutes. Filter by category or source, and search by keyword.
Read Edge Scores
Every market gets a score from 0–100 and a confidence label (Strong Edge down to Bad Edge). High scores mean the quant model sees a potential dislocation.
Save to Watchlist
Click the bookmark icon on any card to save it. Saved markets appear in the Analysis → Watchlist tab so you can track them over time.
Simulate Picks
Open any market and use the Simulate a Pick panel. Choose YES or NO, enter a stake, and add it to your Portfolio. No real money ever.
Track Performance
Visit Portfolio to see all your picks, mark wins/losses, and watch your cumulative P&L chart update. Use this to test your own thesis before risking anything real.
Deep Dive in Analysis
The Analysis page shows the edge leaderboard and confidence distribution across all markets so you can spot macro patterns fast.
Understanding Edge Scores
Every market is scored 0–100 by an AI-assisted quantitative model and assigned one of five labels. The model combines statistical signals with market microstructure analysis. Higher scores indicate more potential dislocation not guaranteed outcomes.
Strong Edge
Score >= 68. Strong momentum and statistical deviation from mean. Model sees a meaningful dislocation worth tracking.
Mild Edge
Score 57-67. Moderate signal with acceptable spread. Interesting but needs confirmation before sizing.
Neutral
Score 43-56. Market looks efficiently priced near fair value. No clear edge in either direction.
Risky
Score 33-42, or spread > 8%, or liquidity < $5K. Wide bid-ask or thin book makes execution difficult.
Bad Edge
Score < 33. Model sees negative edge. Efficiently priced or negatively dislocated. Pass.
Scoring Factors
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Probability Deviation | 25% | How far the market is from 50%. Extreme prices can signal crowd conviction or overconfidence. |
| Momentum | 25% | Combines 7-day and 30-day price changes. Consistent directional moves suggest new information being priced in. |
| Volatility | 15% | Recent daily return std dev. High volatility = more dislocations = more opportunity. |
| Z-Score | 15% | Standard deviations from 30-day mean. A large z-score indicates the price has moved unusually far from its recent anchor. |
| Volume/Liquidity | 10% | Active trading relative to total liquidity. High activity signals informed players are moving the market. |
| Market Inefficiency | 10% | Derived from spread width and low competitiveness. Inefficient markets are harder to trade but can offer larger dislocations. |
Kelly Criterion
Each market detail page shows Kelly fractions the theoretically optimal percentage of your bankroll to stake on YES or NO, given the current probability.
Capped at 25% (quarter-Kelly) for risk management
Kelly fractions are theoretical. They assume perfect information and no execution costs. Use as a rough sizing guide only.
Data Sources
Live data via the Gamma API. Up to 500 markets, refreshed every 3 minutes. Includes real-time prices, spreads, liquidity, and 7/30-day changes.
Representative market data across Economics, Politics, Energy, and Technology. Live API integration in progress.
Live binary markets from Manifold's public API. Sorted by liquidity to surface the most actively traded questions.